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Prediction for CME (2025-10-03T16:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-03T16:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41598/-1
CME Note: Faint, wide, slow CME observed as barely a partial halo to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and more directly to the E in STEREO A COR2 with a large data gap between 2025-10-03T18:53Z to 2025-10-03T22:23Z. The source for this event is uncertain, and the slow evolving lobed nature of the front highlights this uncertainty, with two visible eruption candidates that are poor fits. A filament eruption spanning N20W30 to N40W60 which begins to lift-off around 2025-10-03T15:45Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/304 is observed, along with faint, slow dimming and field line loop brightening over cluster of AR 14232 (N04W14) and AR 14236 (N10W22) starting around 2025-10-03T15:00Z; but neither source is clearly associated with this front. Arrival characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from approx. 8nT to approx. 13nT, reaching a maximum of 14nT. Accompanied by a small increase in solar wind speed from 345 km/s to 400 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-09T07:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-08T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 330
Longitude (deg): E015
Latitude (deg): S01
Half-angular width (deg): 32

Notes: Complex eruption, low confidence in analysis. Minimal impact expected due to low speed, which also gives broad error bars. Arrival delayed slightly over original forecast.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 52.33 hour(s)
Difference: 31.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-10-07T03:20Z

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